Audio Renaissance Conference
It happened back in late October in London, a gathering of music industry veterans to explore the future of music. It was event organized by Futuresoure, a consulting firm that does market research etc across a wide variety of industries, and attended by about 150 individuals according to the reports on their website. Sarah Carrol, was first to speak and laid out a rosy picture for manufacturers of audio hardware, which is one of the market segments that is showing growth. Wireless speakers are projected to grow by an astounding 76% in just this year alone over the totals from 2013. And there’s growth in soundbars, wearable fitness technology and media adapters as well.
Figure 1 – A Futuresource chart showing the sales of various audio devices. [Click to enlarge]
She’s quoted as saying, “The audio industry’s renaissance has arrived. There’s a groundswell of innovation in the device space and stabilization across the breath of the music industry.” Sarah continued by attaching percentages to various territories and their consumer adoption of “digital music”. I’m not exactly what that means but apparently Sweden leads the way with consumers “allocating 87% of the total music spend to digital purchases.” The US and UK come in at 67% and 55& respectively with France, Germany, and Japan at less than 30%.
Figure 2 – A Futuresource chart showing the trends by territory of digital music spending. [Click to enlarge]
Her message may be good news for the makers of “digital devices” but the music industry is not in a “renaissance”. There is no rebirth happening in music sales. Physical media is down another 13% this year, downloads are diminishing, streaming doesn’t pay the artist much, and the fidelity of music gets worse with every new release. Does anyone really want to listen to heavily compressed music through a soundbar or wearable fitness device (I’m not even sure that’s possible!).
David Sidebottom, Senior Market Analyst at Future source, address the group and provided information on the content side of the music industry. He presented a rather startling statistics that music subscription services (Music Key, Spotify, Pandora, Deezer, Tidal, Beats etc) will account for about 20% of consumer spending on music this year but will rise to 57% in 2018. That’s what he indicated during his presentation…streaming services will increase nearly threefold over the next 4 years. This does not bode well for high resolution audio fans. While I applaud Deezer and Tidal, they will only be streaming CD quality. There won’t be any discs to purchase and downloads will be drying up as streaming takes the lead.
Figure 3 – A Futuresource chart showing listening trends in the USA and UK. [Click to enlarge]
The chart shows the results of a survey of 4000 individuals and percentages for a variety of questions about listening platforms and habits. The totals at the bottom demonstrated to Mr. Sidebottom, “the purchasing pull that the music industry continues to exert upon its audiences.” I’m not sure I would agree with his conclusion. The music industry is losing its ability to make money from the release of new music. There are still opportunities in the licensing of old masters to high-resolution download sites but that doesn’t make up for the cash cow that has been the mainstay of the music industry since I’ve been buying music.
It’s a strange time in the music industry.
All too true, but… what it’s all about is offering the public the right balance of convenience and sound quality.
While 16/44 is not hi-res, it is a format that if used to the full extent of it’s capabilities, can sound quite listenable on a good system. So if the eventuality for most is streaming 16/44, I call that progress relative to MP-3/128, and that combination should be a winning one for most. Yes, I have come to believe that high-res will mostly be explored by audiophiles. Thus we will end up with good sound for everyman, and great sound for the few, exactly what I personally feel is a very positive scenario overall.
As for devices, we had tinny x-istor radios in the old days, and the I-phones and jamboxes of this world are nothing more than today’s tinny devices. What remains to be seen is whether or not the millennials, who do not buy cable or satellite tv subscriptions or follow hardly any boomer patterns, will ever buy good loudspeakers and learn to sit, listen, and be blown away. Their current music consumption habits only feed them “appetizers.” Will they ever dig into the main dish? That is something I do wonder about, and CD quality streaming might just be enough to get them to the dining table. I always would rather be aware and hopeful than aware and cynical or nay-saying.
OK, I’m a dinasour and I really don’t understand this whole “streaming” business model.
A couple days ago the Gods looked down on us and Pink Floyd released Endless River. That night I had the HDTracks download in my server and playing anywhere in my house, on my portable media player and playing in my phones on my walks, playing on my pickups radio, etc, etc, etc. You understand.
So now we’re 5 years in the future, hard media and downloads are gone and they’ve been replaced by “streaming”
So how do I now get the whole album Endless River and have it available anytime and anywhere that I want. I just don’t understand how streaming works and how besides putting X dollars in someones pocket every month whether I use them or not how does streaming differ from downloads.
My old brain just can’t keep up.
BTW , For $22.98 HDTracks can’t even get the file-song names right. Track 12s name is Autumn ’68, not Autumn ‘6 as it reads on their files.
I’d have to ask the HDtracks guys whether the metadata is input by them or does it come fully completed by the labels. I don’t think this is too big a deal…I certainly have found a lot of mistakes on my sites.
Sal, think of streaming like electricity. You turn on the switch and the lights come on. In the music delivery model, all of your music will be stored on someone else’s hard drive (the cloud) and you will be able to access any recording at any time in any location. At this point, the only downside is that you can’t get any quality. Having that flexibility for say $20 per month is pretty compelling.
1 Data for most is not unlimited.
2 Data is noy accessible everywhere.
3 Telco data has inconsistent coverage and dead spots.
Data is yet another expensive service times toe cost of a data plan for each device.
4 dependent upon connectivity to the server and their capacity to serve it.
5 the political whims of the company, country where service originates. Content can be blocked.
6 something getting taken away from me… consider when 1984 got wipped off device where legally purchased.
7 media or downloaded content i will alway have at no cost beyond purchase.
8 Much more content in media or download. Content such like AIX not likely as a stream.
Yes media and downloads have their fragilities but far, far less than streaming, especially the hidden costs.
Good points but with the “Offline” aspect of the Music Key program…that means most of your concerns go away. They’re going to be doing downloads as well.
Thanks guys, I’m a little clearer now on things.
I’m sure I can depend on my Linux developer bros to hack a program that will allow me to record, trascode, etc to do whatever I’d want with a stream.
Long term I wouldn’t worry about getting locked to 16/44 or whatever. This is all about greed and money. Once 16/44 is the norm they’ll be looking for a way to get more money, then the big PR will start for upgrading to a HiRez stream.
Just look at TV. HiDef, 3d, 4k etc ever more.
Don’t matter that 16/44 is good enough for most folks-equipment. When the need for the suppliers to make more $ becomes a priority, the $ will be put into PR to convince people they need better. 24/192 DSD64 or something that can be sold is just around the corner.
But at my age I’ll be dead before I have to worry about it. LOL